NIGERIA’S VOODOO ECONOMY: FROM INDUSTRIAL FACTORIES IN THE 70s TO REAL ESTATE PONZI IN 2026 – By Gbolahan Ogundimu Odusanya

From Dunlop to Diamond Estate. From Factory To Voodoo. Where Did We Get It Wrong.

NIGERIA’S VOODOO ECONOMY: FROM INDUSTRIAL FACTORIES IN THE 70s TO REAL ESTATE PONZI IN 2026

There is no more industrial factory like we had in 1970s. What we have now people call investment is REAL ESTATE. And how sustainable is that business in current economic climate?

I have been trying to understand Nigeria’s economy. It is more like a VOODOO ECONOMY.

IN THE 1970s, WE PRODUCED:

In 1975, Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Aba had:

– Dunlop producing tyres in Ikeja
– Michelin in Port Harcourt
– Bata making shoes in Mushin
– Cadbury, Nestle, Lever Brothers producing food and soap in Agbara
– Ajaokuta Steel, Delta Steel, textile mills in Kaduna – 100% cotton from Gusau to finished Ankara in same country
– Volkswagen in Lagos, Peugeot in Kaduna assembling cars
– 200,000 factory jobs where a secondary school leaver could buy land, marry and build house in 3 years.

Those factories paid tax, paid pension, created middle class.

Today, all gone. Dunlop is now a church. Bata factory is now warehouse for imported China shoes. Textile mills are now event centres.

WHAT DID WE REPLACE IT WITH? REAL ESTATE.

Since 2010, every Nigerian with small money says “I am now into real estate.” No factory, no product, no export. Just buy bush in Epe, Ibeju, Mowe, cut into 300sqm, call it “Emerald Estate, 30 mins from Airport” – which is 3 hours in traffic, and sell at N15m per plot with N2m discount if you pay today.

The entire middle class has been converted to land sellers. Doctors, lawyers, pastors, ex-bankers – all are now “Realtors.”

WHY THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE – THE JEOPARDY:

1. No Completion: Go to Epe, Ibeju, Ikorodu, Lugbe Abuja. There are 5,000 estates with gate and fence but no house, no road, no light. Because developer used money from Estate A to buy land for Estate B, and money from B to buy C. When sales stop, everything collapses. Many estates are in jeopardy. They cannot be completed. Subscribers have paid for 2 years, no allocation.

2. No Buyers for Completed: Even those completed, who will buy? A 3-bedroom in Sangotedo now N120m. Minimum wage N70k. A young man earning N500k needs 20 years salary to buy, without eating. So estate is empty. You see 100 houses, 10 occupied.

3. Maintenance Extortion: Because developer cannot sell new houses again, he turns to estate manager to frustrate residents with outrageous maintenance fees. N100k monthly to cut grass, N50k to pack refuse, N200k for diesel that never comes. Resident is paying second rent inside his own house. Many are leaving estates back to town. That is why you see “Estate to Let” everywhere.

4. No Value Addition: Real estate does not produce dollar. Factory produces goods you export, you get dollar. Estate only circulates same Naira among ourselves. We sell land to each other, no new money enters economy.

WHY I CALL IT VOODOO ECONOMY:

A real economy is simple: You produce something, you sell, you earn, you reinvest.

Voodoo economy is: You produce nothing, but money appears. How?

– Nigeria produces almost no goods, but imports N6 trillion worth of goods. Dollar goes to #1,400.
– Government borrows to pay salary, not to build factory.
– CBN prints money, but that money goes to buy dollars for import, not to fund factory.
– Youths leave school, no factory to employ them, so they become real estate marketers on Instagram, selling bush to each other. They make small commission, they think economy is moving.
– Banks no longer give loan to factory at 10%, they give loan to real estate developer at 30% because land is collateral. Factory cannot survive at 30%.
– So we have estates without residents, malls without buyers, houses without tenants, and tenants without money to pay rent. But on paper, GDP is growing because real estate is counted as growth. That is voodoo – something that appears to exist but does not exist.

THE TRUTH WE DON’T WANT TO HEAR:

Real estate can only be sustainable if there is INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY behind it. People need factory jobs to afford to buy house. Factory needs power, power needs gas, gas needs pipeline security. We abandoned all that.

In Dubai, real estate thrives because there is aviation, tourism, tech jobs that pay people to buy house. In Lagos, real estate thrives on… hope. Hope that someone from diaspora will come and buy. But diaspora is also tired.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT?

1. 60% of those Epe/Ibeju estates will never be completed. Subscribers will lose money, just like MMM.
2. Completed estates will become ghost estates, then ghettos, because maintenance fee fight will scatter them.
3. Real estate companies will start dragging themselves to EFCC.
4. Government will finally remember: We need to go back to factory. Ajaokuta, textiles, tyres.

Until we bring back factories, real estate is not investment, it is parking lot for looted money and hopeful money. And parking lots get full.

EKO O NI BAJE, BUT VOODOO ECONOMY MUST END.

Addendum :

Babajide Sanwo-Olu. Sir you can leave a framework for the incoming Governor Dr. Obafemi Hamzat. That any estate that does not fully develop within a time frame work will be confiscated by Government at least it will bring sanity into the polity and will be categorized as9 abandoned buildings platform that will be used to augment the sufferings of those looking for house. So before you start building any house you must provide where your fundings are coming from.